Statistiques de Houle pour Avalon-North, Automne: Vagues avec Vents Légers ou Favorables.
This image shows only the swells directed at Avalon-North that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was E, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 7% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere autumn but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalon-North is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Avalon-North about 7% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 13% of the time. This is means that we expect 18 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere autumn, of which 6 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.