Statistiques de Houle pour Apollo Bay, Octobre: Vagues avec Vents Légers ou Favorables.
This image shows only the swells directed at Apollo Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 53% of the time, equivalent to 16 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 19% of the time (6 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Apollo Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Apollo Bay about 53% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 46% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical October, of which 16 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.