Statistiques de Houle pour Anse de Lesconil, Octobre: Vagues avec Vents Légers ou Favorables.
This image shows only the swells directed at Anse de Lesconil that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 24% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 11% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Anse de Lesconil is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Anse de Lesconil about 24% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 47% of the time. This is means that we expect 22 days with waves in a typical October, of which 7 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.