Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Mitchell's Bay Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

This picture illustrates the range of swells directed at Mitchell's Bay over a normal March and is based upon 3460 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Mitchell's Bay, and at Mitchell's Bay the best grid node is 80 km away (50 miles). The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These happened only 92% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast. The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Mitchell's Bay and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Mitchell's Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical March, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Mitchell's Bay run for about 8% of the time.

Also see Mitchell's Bay wind stats

Compare Mitchell's Bay with another surf break

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