Surf Forecast Surf Report
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El Estero Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The figure shows the variation of swells directed at El Estero over a normal March. It is based on 2964 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about El Estero. In the case of El Estero, the best grid node is 26 km away (16 miles). The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 99% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs. The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from El Estero and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at El Estero, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical March, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at El Estero run for about 1.0% of the time.

Also see El Estero wind stats

Compare El Estero with another surf break

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